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Monday, July 26, 2021

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It shouldn’t matter much. The continuation of the Pro League and tours should help update us on the teams’ progress. Shooting- Anyone with some know how of Indian Olympic sports knows that this is the big one, the breakout that we all wanted. Although a sport shooting medal is not of the same merit as a freestyle wresting or athletics or badminton medal, a medal is a medal. The NRAI has overseen the youth takeover with exceptional performances at major competitions and a genuine feeling of a medal haul unlike before. In the past, most Indian shooters barring a few like Bindra and co would earn their quotas at inferior competitions or through their world ranking. In this cycle, they have done so after beating world class competition (the same they will face in Tokyo). The 4 World Cups in 2019 saw around 19 Gold medals, which was simply stunning! Prediction wise, almost all the Indoor disciplines ae primed while the Outdoor ones are still lagging hard and will likely return medal-less.

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Edit 1: Badminton India got a harsh awakening. Only 4 qualified. Should have focused on creating a stable of great players and not just relying on a few stalwarts. India’s uniqueness in having certain sports played exclusively by certain states (Badminton by Andhra, combat sports by Haryana & NE) is a great detriment to is sporting progress. We shall see what our players can do. Not much info to gauge their performances as there have been no tournaments for a while now. Boxing- If you look at the run up to the 2016 Olympics and the results, having sent only 3 boxers, you would be astonished to know how well some of our boxers have fared since then. This Olympic cycle has seen a U-turn. The support team is really well funded now, with a good coach Mr. Kuttapa, a high performance director Mr. Nieva, govt assistance and better coaching. We earned 9 quotas in 2020 (in the Asian qualifier) and should have earned more had the IOA not decided to scrap the world qualifier in June. I expect a much better performance and hopefully, medals borne out of them.

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India predicted to have bumper harvest in Tokyo – 17 medals including four gold (Above is taken from wiki and my medal predictions for the Best/Median/Worst cases) Archery:- Best case would be 3 medals, which seems preposterous given not a single medal from this discipline has materialized in the past and most of our archers have wilted under pressure. But this is an event where a hot archer can get a medal. Worst case would be 0, obviously. The men’s team earned the Silver and a quota at a very difficult competition- the 2019 World Championships. The women failed to make the QF and earn a team spot; I am hoping they can get the job done in the World Qualifiers in June 2021.

Saturday, July 24, 2021

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Others like Tejinder Toor, who are certain to qualify through their world ranking, will do really well to qualify for the final of their event. The relay teams, all 3, don’t elicit a lot of excitement as there hasn’t been progress and around 5 or so countries have better athletes. Hoping Jinson Johnson can qualify as he did really well in the 2019 season; same for Tejaswin Shankar and Seema Punia. Some big publicity names like Dutte Chand will likely not even qualify. And I hope the athletics coach Galina knows what she is doing- making Hima Das run the 100m and 200m?! Hoping that is to help with her 400m top end speed. The race walkers and marathoners will likely end up medal-less so I am expecting PRs. Let’s see how many qualify and how they qualify, throughout this athletics season. Edit 1: Neeraj Chopra’s chances of getting Gold have dipped hard due to a stunning season by Vetter, who is throwing over 92m consistently. Much more importantly, Neeraj only now got a visa to compete in some international events and thus wasn’t able to improve from 88m. India’s second wave led to many Indian sportsmen being barred. Let’s hope Neeraj can throw in some competitions and break 90m before the Olympics. **This will be a crucial stage and we have to see if Neeraj can hit 88m again, before late July, which will show he is peaked and can at least hit PBs, if not 90m**. He threw fine distances in the 3 competitions since mid June. Hoping he can compete at the London Diamond League.

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This time, it is way, way different. I can count several who will not be going to Tokyo to vacation but with serious intent. Neeraj Chopra seems the only legit candidate and even he is somewhat a dark horse because of his competition. He may throw over 90m by August but around 8 or so have done so as well. All 3 Germans can throw well over 90m; Vetter will be favourite to win Gold but he can be inconsistent; Rohler and Hoffman are 92+m throwers too. A few others like Yego can throw big too. Even with all this taken into account, hoping for a medal from Neeraj is a prediction I share as well. Unless Kamalpreet Kaur is found to be on PEDs, she is a favourite to at least make the finals of the discus throw (women). If she throws less than 60m in qualifying, then she was on juice when she threw over 66m. I am sorely hoping that wasn’t the case or that she is at least not caught. A few others like M. Sreeshankar, Annu Rani and Avinash Sable seem dark horses, more so than Neeraj. If Sree jumps around 8.35m to 8.40m, then a Bronze is not out of the question. If Annu can somehow speed up her run up & refine her technique, she can throw over 66m, maybe earning a Bronze. Avinash will likely smash the 3000m SC national record again and I hope for a sub 8min 10sec time. If the middle distance event turns into a slow final, then they stand a chance to nick a medal. Very difficult to do so but stranger things have happened. I think the late June events held in India to help athletes qualify will be key to assess the readiness of the medal contenders and dark horses. https://baseball-aholic.com/shop/kids-hand-print-school-keepsake-t-shirt/
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If they don’t have a mental meltdown due to “pressure” like seen in the past two Olympics and Asian Games, then 2 hard fought medals, one each in the men’s team and the mixed team is what I predict. The women’s team as well as all the individuals CAN get a medal, it’s just that they haven’t performed at such a stage yet. The South Korean women might be invincible, but their men are not. The Chinese and Dutch will be formidable, while other nations like Russia, Mexico, Japan etc. will not make things easy. The addition of mixed team events can be a amplifier not just in archery but other events like shooting. Together, they can support each other and make up for mistakes better. Edit 1: After a dismal display by the women’s archery team at the final qualification tournament in Paris, only Deepika Kumari will go to Tokyo, along with the men. Medal expectations from her in the individual tournament are limited but maybe she can spring a surprise in the mixed team. Prediction tweaked somewhat. Athletics:- Here’s hoping we earn our first (and more) medal from the cornerstone discipline of the Olympics. There are a ton of actual athletes this time that any other in recent memory. In the past, I remember seeing the Olympic qualification mark being broken just before the Games, either through doping or by going to a high altitude city like Almaty, then a placement like 25 or 32 at the Olympics, nowhere near their Personal Best. I have seen long jumpers, triple jumpers, throwers, middle distance athletes and others do this.

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Even a big fat zero is not out of the question, as almost every single country is fighting for every medal they earn. I’ll look at every single discipline where India is expected to perform and although I will pray for magic from Fencing (please Bhavani), Judo, Swimming, Table Tennis etc., they won’t be the focus. Time for something that makes that Mahabharat look like a tweet. This is from Gracenote (an external firm that has been good at calculating Olympic success per country and per event for the past two Games) and the Indian Express and seems to corroborate the even path that I had laid out months ago. We’ll see what Gracenote’s final prediction is in late July. (Above is taken from wiki and my medal predictions for the Best/Median/Worst cases) Archery:- Best case would be 3 medals, which seems preposterous given not a single medal from this discipline has materialized in the past and most of our archers have wilted under pressure. But this is an event where a hot archer can get a medal. Worst case would be 0, obviously. The men’s team earned the Silver and a quota at a very difficult competition- the 2019 World Championships. The women failed to make the QF and earn a team spot; I am hoping they can get the job done in the World Qualifiers in June 2021. https://teerocknroll.com/shop/kids-hand-print-school-keepsake-t-shirt/
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