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The discrepancy between the popular vote and Electoral College was caused mainly by solid swings to Clinton in the two most populous states, California and Texas, but big swings to Trump in the midwest. Clinton’s gains in California and Texas resulted in zero additional EVs, while Trump’s big gains in the midwest hugely benefited him in the Electoral College, as he won five midwestern states that had previously been won by Obama, and thus gained all those states’ EVs.

Education level was the biggest factor in explaining the swings, with higher educated voters likely to swing to Clinton, and lower educated voters to Trump. The states Trump gained had a greater proportion of non-University educated whites than nationally. US analyst Nate silver showes that education level, not income, explained the swings. Even in counties with more black or Hispanic voters than whites, the relationship between education level and swing to Trump applied.

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